Anggriawan Sugianto

The silence at 10 PM in Selo, Boyolali is not like other silences. It's not the quiet of sleep. It's thick, wet, and heavy—the kind of quiet that happens when a sleeping volcano is watching you from inside the clouds.

I stood at the start line of Merapi 360°, looked at my watch, then looked down the dark road ahead. Seventy-seven kilometers of asphalt stretched into nothing. No trails. No rocks to trip over. Just me, my shoes, and a giant mountain that hadn't moved in a very long time.

I told myself this would be easy. I told myself wrong.

Running to Finish Line @ Merapi 360º

What I Planned vs. What Happened

I usually run on dirt. I love the rocky climbs of trails, the switchbacks, the way your body has to think about every step. BDG Ultra and Siksorogo Lawu Ultra—those are my home. So I looked at Merapi 360° and thought: This will be simple. Just a road race. A chance to build fitness before my bigger race, BTS Ultra 170K, in a few months.

I thought of it as a training run. Something controlled. Something safe.

The mountain laughed.

The Map That Didn't Match the Road

Before the race, I tried to load the GPS file onto my watch. Amazfit, Coros, Garmin—nothing worked. So I did what I call "GPS laundering": uploaded it to Strava, downloaded it again, and finally got it onto my watch. It worked, but something was wrong with the map.

The GPS showed straight lines between points. The actual road was never straight.

This became a problem at 2 AM, when I was running through Boyolali/Klaten/Sleman in the dark. At every corner, I had to stop and look for a red painted arrow on the road. In the darkness, those arrows were nearly invisible. I would slow down, squint, wonder if I was lost, then see it: a faded red line pointing me forward.

Later, I thought about this. In my business, I see the same thing happen. You have a plan that looks perfect on paper. Clean lines. Clear directions. But when people actually try to use it—when they're tired, scared, and it's 2 AM—the plan falls apart. The arrows that seemed so clear in the office are invisible in real life.

The difference is that when a business plan is broken, people lose money. When a GPS is broken and you're running at night, you lose time. Both hurt, but one is more honest about it.

Most runners have a gap between where they think they are and where they actually are.

It's not malicious. It's not ignorance. It's just how brains work—we're optimistic about ourselves. We remember our good runs and forget the bad ones. We imagine ourselves stronger than we actually are.

But there's a cost to this optimism: you set goals that don't match your current fitness, and you get injured or burned out trying to reach them.

In early 2026, before I committed to the 170K goal, I had to answer an uncomfortable question: Am I actually ready to attempt this, or am I just wishful thinking?

The answer required brutal honesty about where I actually was.

BDG Ultra 100K - My longest run so far.. 30 hours+

VDOT and Training Paces: Your Actual Fitness Level

One of the most useful frameworks for understanding your actual fitness is Ollie Glaspool's VDOT system (popularized by Jack Daniels).

VDOT estimates your VO2 max equivalent based on your recent race performance. It's not a measure of how hard you're trying. It's a measure of what your body can actually do.

My VDOT in mid-2025 was 39.4. This translates to these training paces:

• Easy (Zone 2) = Pace 6:11–6:47/km, HR 140–155 bpm
• Threshold/Tempo = Pace 5:09/km, 165–180 bpm
• Interval (VO2 max) = Pace 4:45/km, HR 180–195 bpm
• Repetition (Speed) = Pace 4:30/km, HR 190–199 bpm

These aren't aspirational. These are based on my actual recent 5K trial performance.

Why VDOT matters:

Most runners run their easy runs too fast and their hard runs not hard enough. This is because:

• Easy runs feel slow, so they speed them up
• Hard runs are hard, so they don't push as hard as they should

VDOT gives you objective paces. When you run 6:11–6:47/km easy, you're building your aerobic base. When you run 5:09/km tempo, you're training your threshold. When you run 4:45/km intervals, you're training VO2 max.

Running slower or faster than these ranges reduces the effectiveness of the training.

How to calculate your VDOT:

• Do a 5K time trial (all-out effort) or use a recent 5K/10K race time
• Plug it into a VDOT calculator (search "Jack Daniels VDOT calculator")
• Get your estimated VDOT and the training paces that go with it
• Update it every 8–12 weeks as your fitness improves

By mid-2025, my VDOT was 39.4, which is solidly aerobic but not elite. This VDOT tells me I'm capable of running a marathon around 3:52–3:55, a 100K around 22–26 hours, and a 170K around 37–44 hours. This was realistic information for goal-setting.

An injury doesn't appear overnight.

It builds. Slowly. Quietly. Usually while you're ignoring the warning signs.

You feel a twinge. You think, "It's nothing, just a little soreness." You keep training.

Two weeks later, the twinge becomes a persistent ache. You think, "Hmm, I should probably address this." You keep training.

Four weeks later, you can't run at your target pace. You think, "Okay, this is a real problem." You finally see someone.

By then, you've lost 6 weeks to deconditioning because you didn't address it when it was a twinge.

Learning to identify red flags—the early warning signs of injury—is how you stay healthy through 170 kilometers of training.

ASICS Running Club 2024

Cardiovascular and Structural Red Flags

There are two categories of red flags: ones that signal overtraining or inadequate recovery, and ones that signal structural problems.

Overtraining Red Flags:

These are signs that your nervous system is fried, your recovery is insufficient, or your training load is too high:

• Elevated resting heart rate: Your baseline RHR is 58 bpm. If it climbs to 64+ bpm consistently over 3+ days (not just one elevated morning), this signals overtraining.
• Crashed HRV: Your baseline HRV is 39. If it drops below 30 for consecutive days, your nervous system is stressed.
• Persistent fatigue: You feel tired even after rest days. Your legs feel heavy. Your motivation is gone.
• Elevated morning heart rate after hard workouts: After a tempo run, your morning HR should return to baseline within 24 hours. If it's still elevated on the second day, you didn't recover.
• Elevated resting heart rate during runs: Your heart rate during easy runs is creeping up. What used to be 145 bpm now requires 155 bpm to maintain the same pace. This signals fatigue accumulation.
• Sleep disruption: You're lying awake. You're waking up frequently. You're not sleeping deeply even though you have 8 hours in bed.
• Mood changes: You're irritable. You're anxious. You're having trouble concentrating.

When I see 3+ of these signs simultaneously, I immediately reduce training intensity (not volume) and prioritize sleep and recovery.

Structural Red Flags:

These are warning signs that something is biomechanically wrong and injury is developing:

• Pain that appears in the same spot consistently: Sharp pain in your left knee on descents, aching in your right shin on long runs—these are structural problems, not just soreness.
• Pain that gets worse over the course of a run: You feel fine at kilometer 10, but by kilometer 25 the pain is significant. This suggests a mechanical problem that accumulates with volume.
• Asymmetrical pain: One leg hurts, the other doesn't. This suggests either an injury on that side or a compensation pattern.
• Pain that doesn't improve within 2 weeks of rest: Normal training soreness should resolve with 2–3 days of reduced intensity. If it persists beyond 2 weeks, it's structural.
• Swelling or visible inflammation: Puffiness around your ankle, knee, or hip. Warmth in the joint. Visible bruising.
• Altered running gait: You're limping slightly. You're shifting weight to one side. You're shortening stride on one leg.
• Pain that wakes you at night: Sleep is usually when inflammation decreases. If pain wakes you, the inflammation is significant.

For me, the most relevant red flag is right plantar fasciitis. I experienced this after the BDG Ultra 64K in 2024, when I ran macadam downhills. The repetitive impact on descent caused heel pain.

My approach to this vulnerability:

When I feel even mild heel pain, I:

1. Reduce impact volume (fewer long runs on hard surfaces)
2. Focus on technical trail running (softer landings, better technique)
3. Do calf stretches and plantar fascia release work
4. Ice if needed

When I see structural red flags, I immediately:

1. Stop running if pain is sharp or worsening
2. Reduce volume if pain is stable but present
3. Get professional assessment if pain persists beyond 2 weeks
4. Follow rehab protocol precisely

I don't ignore it. I don't "run through it." I acknowledge it and adapt my training.