Anggriawan Sugianto

A marathon is 42.195 kilometers.

For most runners, it takes 3–4 hours. For me, my personal best is 4 hours 11 minutes 40 seconds—close to a sub-4 target that many runners chase.

But here's what I've learned: a marathon isn't a test of speed. It's a test of pacing, fueling, and mental toughness over sustained effort.

Most runners who miss their marathon goals don't miss them because they lack fitness. They miss them because they made a pacing mistake, a fueling mistake, or a mental mistake.

Understanding the marathon as a strategic problem—not just a running problem—is how you go from missing your goal to hitting it.

Understanding the 42-Kilometer Gap: Where Time Is Lost

My marathon PB is 4:11:40, which averages 5:56/km. My PB 5K is 24:24 (4:52/km pace), and my PB 10K is 52:05 (5:12/km pace).

Based on my VDOT of 39.4, I should be capable of running a marathon at approximately 5:41/km average pace, which would give me a 3:59:00 finish.

That's a 15-second-per-kilometer improvement from my current PB. Over 42 kilometers, that's 10 minutes and 30 seconds.

10 minutes and 30 seconds seems small. But it's not. Here's why:

Where time is lost in a marathon:

Most runners lose time in the second half of the race, typically after kilometer 28–30. This is where fatigue compounds and pacing falls apart.

Let me break down a typical marathon for someone at my fitness level:

• Kilometers 0–10: Feel fresh. Want to run fast. Average pace: 5:30/km (too fast)
• Kilometers 10–21: Still feeling okay. Pace gradually increases with fatigue. Average pace: 5:50/km
• Kilometers 21–32: Fatigue accumulates. This is the hardest section mentally. Average pace: 5:50/km (but feeling much harder)
• Kilometers 32–42: The wall. Everything hurts. Pace slows to 6:15/km

Total time: 4:18

Where did the time go? The first 10 kilometers. By going too fast early (5:30/km when I should have been at 5:41/km), I accumulated fatigue that I couldn't recover from, and the final 10K became a death march.

The correct pacing strategy: Even splits with psychological negative split mindset

My preferred strategy is to run even splits—maintaining consistent pace throughout. But in my mind, I aim for slight negative splits (run slightly faster at the end) to ensure I don't overpace at the beginning.

This mental framework prevents the pacing mistakes:

• Kilometers 0–10: Deliberately hold back. Pace: 5:45/km. Remind yourself: "This feels slow, but that's the point."
• Kilometers 10–21: Settle into your target even pace. Pace: 5:41/km. Feel slightly hard, but controlled.
• Kilometers 21–32: Maintain discipline despite fatigue. Pace: 5:41/km. This is the hardest section mentally—everyone hurts.
• Kilometers 32–42: If you've executed correctly, you have strength left. Pace: 5:41/km (or slightly faster if it comes naturally).

Total time: 3:59:00

The difference between 4:18 and 3:59 isn't fitness. It's pacing discipline and mental strategy.

How to find your marathon target pace:

Your marathon pace should be approximately 25–30 seconds per kilometer slower than your 5K pace. For me:

• 5K PB: 24:24 (4:52/km equivalent pace)
• 10K PB: 52:05 (5:12/km equivalent pace)

Marathon target pace: 5:41/km (calculated from VDOT 39.4)

This is roughly 49 seconds slower than my 5K pace and 29 seconds slower than my 10K pace. This aligns with my VDOT prediction and with my goal.

The silence at 10 PM in Selo, Boyolali is not like other silences. It's not the quiet of sleep. It's thick, wet, and heavy—the kind of quiet that happens when a sleeping volcano is watching you from inside the clouds.

I stood at the start line of Merapi 360°, looked at my watch, then looked down the dark road ahead. Seventy-seven kilometers of asphalt stretched into nothing. No trails. No rocks to trip over. Just me, my shoes, and a giant mountain that hadn't moved in a very long time.

I told myself this would be easy. I told myself wrong.

Running to Finish Line @ Merapi 360º

What I Planned vs. What Happened

I usually run on dirt. I love the rocky climbs of trails, the switchbacks, the way your body has to think about every step. BDG Ultra and Siksorogo Lawu Ultra—those are my home. So I looked at Merapi 360° and thought: This will be simple. Just a road race. A chance to build fitness before my bigger race, BTS Ultra 170K, in a few months.

I thought of it as a training run. Something controlled. Something safe.

The mountain laughed.

The Map That Didn't Match the Road

Before the race, I tried to load the GPS file onto my watch. Amazfit, Coros, Garmin—nothing worked. So I did what I call "GPS laundering": uploaded it to Strava, downloaded it again, and finally got it onto my watch. It worked, but something was wrong with the map.

The GPS showed straight lines between points. The actual road was never straight.

This became a problem at 2 AM, when I was running through Boyolali/Klaten/Sleman in the dark. At every corner, I had to stop and look for a red painted arrow on the road. In the darkness, those arrows were nearly invisible. I would slow down, squint, wonder if I was lost, then see it: a faded red line pointing me forward.

Later, I thought about this. In my business, I see the same thing happen. You have a plan that looks perfect on paper. Clean lines. Clear directions. But when people actually try to use it—when they're tired, scared, and it's 2 AM—the plan falls apart. The arrows that seemed so clear in the office are invisible in real life.

The difference is that when a business plan is broken, people lose money. When a GPS is broken and you're running at night, you lose time. Both hurt, but one is more honest about it.

Most runners have a gap between where they think they are and where they actually are.

It's not malicious. It's not ignorance. It's just how brains work—we're optimistic about ourselves. We remember our good runs and forget the bad ones. We imagine ourselves stronger than we actually are.

But there's a cost to this optimism: you set goals that don't match your current fitness, and you get injured or burned out trying to reach them.

In early 2026, before I committed to the 170K goal, I had to answer an uncomfortable question: Am I actually ready to attempt this, or am I just wishful thinking?

The answer required brutal honesty about where I actually was.

BDG Ultra 100K - My longest run so far.. 30 hours+

VDOT and Training Paces: Your Actual Fitness Level

One of the most useful frameworks for understanding your actual fitness is Ollie Glaspool's VDOT system (popularized by Jack Daniels).

VDOT estimates your VO2 max equivalent based on your recent race performance. It's not a measure of how hard you're trying. It's a measure of what your body can actually do.

My VDOT in mid-2025 was 39.4. This translates to these training paces:

• Easy (Zone 2) = Pace 6:11–6:47/km, HR 140–155 bpm
• Threshold/Tempo = Pace 5:09/km, 165–180 bpm
• Interval (VO2 max) = Pace 4:45/km, HR 180–195 bpm
• Repetition (Speed) = Pace 4:30/km, HR 190–199 bpm

These aren't aspirational. These are based on my actual recent 5K trial performance.

Why VDOT matters:

Most runners run their easy runs too fast and their hard runs not hard enough. This is because:

• Easy runs feel slow, so they speed them up
• Hard runs are hard, so they don't push as hard as they should

VDOT gives you objective paces. When you run 6:11–6:47/km easy, you're building your aerobic base. When you run 5:09/km tempo, you're training your threshold. When you run 4:45/km intervals, you're training VO2 max.

Running slower or faster than these ranges reduces the effectiveness of the training.

How to calculate your VDOT:

• Do a 5K time trial (all-out effort) or use a recent 5K/10K race time
• Plug it into a VDOT calculator (search "Jack Daniels VDOT calculator")
• Get your estimated VDOT and the training paces that go with it
• Update it every 8–12 weeks as your fitness improves

By mid-2025, my VDOT was 39.4, which is solidly aerobic but not elite. This VDOT tells me I'm capable of running a marathon around 3:52–3:55, a 100K around 22–26 hours, and a 170K around 37–44 hours. This was realistic information for goal-setting.