Setting Realistic Goals

Most runners have a gap between where they think they are and where they actually are.

It's not malicious. It's not ignorance. It's just how brains work—we're optimistic about ourselves. We remember our good runs and forget the bad ones. We imagine ourselves stronger than we actually are.

But there's a cost to this optimism: you set goals that don't match your current fitness, and you get injured or burned out trying to reach them.

In early 2026, before I committed to the 170K goal, I had to answer an uncomfortable question: Am I actually ready to attempt this, or am I just wishful thinking?

The answer required brutal honesty about where I actually was.

BDG Ultra 100K - My longest run so far.. 30 hours+

VDOT and Training Paces: Your Actual Fitness Level

One of the most useful frameworks for understanding your actual fitness is Ollie Glaspool's VDOT system (popularized by Jack Daniels).

VDOT estimates your VO2 max equivalent based on your recent race performance. It's not a measure of how hard you're trying. It's a measure of what your body can actually do.

My VDOT in mid-2025 was 39.4. This translates to these training paces:

Easy (Zone 2) = Pace 6:11–6:47/km, HR 140–155 bpm
Threshold/Tempo = Pace 5:09/km, 165–180 bpm
Interval (VO2 max) = Pace 4:45/km, HR 180–195 bpm
Repetition (Speed) = Pace 4:30/km, HR 190–199 bpm

These aren't aspirational. These are based on my actual recent 5K trial performance.

Why VDOT matters:

Most runners run their easy runs too fast and their hard runs not hard enough. This is because:

Easy runs feel slow, so they speed them up
Hard runs are hard, so they don't push as hard as they should

VDOT gives you objective paces. When you run 6:11–6:47/km easy, you're building your aerobic base. When you run 5:09/km tempo, you're training your threshold. When you run 4:45/km intervals, you're training VO2 max.

Running slower or faster than these ranges reduces the effectiveness of the training.

How to calculate your VDOT:

Do a 5K time trial (all-out effort) or use a recent 5K/10K race time
Plug it into a VDOT calculator (search "Jack Daniels VDOT calculator")
Get your estimated VDOT and the training paces that go with it
Update it every 8–12 weeks as your fitness improves

By mid-2025, my VDOT was 39.4, which is solidly aerobic but not elite. This VDOT tells me I'm capable of running a marathon around 3:52–3:55, a 100K around 22–26 hours, and a 170K around 37–44 hours. This was realistic information for goal-setting.

The Baseline Assessment: Where I Actually Was in Mid-2025

Before you design a 6-month training plan for 170K, you need to know:

Aerobic fitness level (VDOT: 39.4)
Endurance capacity (what's the longest distance I've run non-stop?)
Movement quality (can I move efficiently after hours of running?)
Injury history (what's my vulnerable areas?)
Recovery capacity (how quickly do I bounce back from hard efforts?)
Fueling proficiency (can I eat and drink without stomach issues?)

For my 170K goal, here's where I actually was in mid-2025:

VDOT = 39.4 (Decent aerobic fitness, not elite)
Longest non-stop run = 42.2 km (Road marathon in 4h 11m)
Movement quality = Good on flats, questionable on descents (Tendency to quad-brake downhills)
Injury history = Right plantar fasciitis (From macadam downhill in BDG Ultra 2024)
Recovery capacity = Moderate (Takes 48 hours to fully recover from tempo runs)
Fueling proficiency = OK (No GI issues in training; first issue appeared at BDG Ultra 100K)

This baseline told me:

✅ I had decent aerobic fitness to attempt 170K
✅ I had already run 42 km non-stop (marathon distance is within my endurance range)
⚠️ My longest single effort was only 42 km. 170K would require sustained effort for 35–40 hours. The time-on-feet would be 8–10× longer.
⚠️ My descent technique needed work (vulnerability on technical mountain courses)
⚠️ My plantar fasciitis history meant I was vulnerable to heel issues on long downhills
⚠️ My recovery was moderate, so overtraining would be a real risk
⚠️ My fueling strategy was untested for true ultra distances (fueling for 30+ hours is different from 3 hours)

This honest assessment shaped my 2025 race plan: Rather than jumping straight to 170K, I ran three 100K races to:

Test my endurance capacity in real race conditions
Identify fueling issues before attempting 170K
Practice descent technique on technical terrain
Build confidence in my ability to sustain effort for 20+ hours

The Gap Analysis: The Honest Path from Here to 170K

Once you know where you are, you can identify the gaps between your current state and your goal.

For 170K at sub-40 hours, my gap analysis was:

Gap 1: Endurance Capacity

Current: 42 km long run (4h 11m)
Target: 60+ km long runs (9+ hours), ultimately 170 km (35–40 hours)
Timeline: 20 weeks of progressive increases
Risk: Accumulation injuries if increased too fast
Strategy: Build gradually; don't jump from 42 km to 60 km

Gap 2: Vertical Climbing

Current: Comfortable with 1,500m elevation per run
Target: Comfortable with 3,000m+ elevation per run (BTS Ultra has 7,439m total)
Timeline: 16 weeks of progressive vertical loading
Risk: Overuse injuries in knees and quads from excessive climbing
Strategy: Add 500m elevation every 2 weeks; practice on mountains, not just road

Gap 3: Technical Trail Skills and Descent Technique

Current: Decent on marked trails, slow/cautious on technical descents
Target: Moving confidently on rocky/rooty descents in darkness
Timeline: 20 weeks of practice (every other long run on technical terrain)
Risk: Falls and acute injuries if skills are rushed
Strategy: Practice descending with better form; film myself to identify braking patterns

Gap 4: Sleep-Deprived Running

Current: Never run for more than 8 consecutive hours
Target: Running efficiently at hour 20, 25, 30 while severely sleep-deprived
Timeline: Practice runs where I specifically run late into evening/early morning
Risk: Poor decision-making on race day if not practiced
Strategy: One long run per month should include a night section

Gap 5: Nutrition at Extreme Duration

Current: No GI issues in training; fueling strategy untested for 30+ hours
Target: Maintaining nutrition through 40+ hours with changing appetite
Timeline: Three 100K races in 2025 to identify and fix fueling issues
Risk: Bonking or stomach shutdown at hour 35+
Strategy: Use each 100K as a fueling experiment; adjust based on feedback

Gap 6: Consistent Strength Training

Current: Only 1× strength per week during peak training (insufficient)
Target: 2–3× strength per week consistently
Timeline: 24 weeks to build baseline strength
Risk: Muscle breakdown on long runs without adequate strength foundation
Strategy: Non-negotiable strength sessions; treat like training, not optional

Gap 7: Managing Work Stress While Training

Current: Moderate recovery capacity; work stress can disrupt training
Target: Resilience to maintain training despite work demands
Timeline: Ongoing (work stress is constant)
Risk: Overtraining while managing high work load
Strategy: Reduce training intensity (not volume) during high-work periods

Once I identified these gaps, I built a 2025 training plan to address them progressively:

Run three 100K races in 8 weeks to test fitness, fueling, and technique
Each race would provide data about readiness for 170K
Gaps that emerged would be addressed in 2026 training block

This approach was more effective than trying to reach 170K in one straight training block.

The key to goal-setting:

Don't set a goal and hope you can reach it. Set a goal, identify the gaps, assess the timeline to close each gap, and design training specifically around those gaps.

This is how you reach 170K without getting injured or burned out. Not through willpower. Through systematic gap closure.

Anggriawan Sugianto